{"id":590,"date":"2025-12-22T18:09:14","date_gmt":"2025-12-22T18:09:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/picks\/?p=590"},"modified":"2025-12-23T05:01:11","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T05:01:11","slug":"590-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/picks\/590-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Portal Vs Recruiting, what is King?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

From Canes Insight to Code: Finding College Football\u2019s Portal \u201cSweet Spot\u201d<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

I was watching Canes Insight<\/strong> the other day, listening to Steve Kim<\/strong>, when he said something that stuck with me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paraphrasing, he wondered out loud if there was a \u201csweet spot\u201d<\/em> in the transfer portal era \u2014 not too portal-heavy, not too old-school high-school recruiting \u2014 but a mix that actually correlates with winning. He also asked the natural follow-up: has anyone already done this math?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That question sent me down a rabbit hole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because once you strip away the talking points, the portal debate is really a data problem<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
How much portal is too much?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
How much continuity matters?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
What happens when a team loads up one year\u2026 then loses those players the next?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
So I built a model. Then I built a tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What you see below is the Portal Sweet Spot framework<\/strong> \u2014 the same logic powering the interactive widget under this article.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
Step 1: Measuring Roster Mix (Portal vs High School)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s start simple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
P<\/strong> = number of portal players added<\/li>\n\n\n\n
H<\/strong> = number of high-school recruits signed<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
There are two useful ways to express roster mix:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Portal Share (PS)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
This is the cleanest headline number. $PS = \\frac{P}{P + H}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>PS=P+HP\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n0.00<\/strong> \u2192 all high-school<\/li>\n\n\n\n0.40<\/strong> \u2192 40% portal<\/li>\n\n\n\n1.00<\/strong> \u2192 all portal<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nThis is the number fans intuitively understand.<\/p>\n\n\n\nPortal Ratio (PR)<\/h3>\n\n\n\nFor the math heads:P<\/mi>R<\/mi>=<\/mo>P<\/mi>H<\/mi><\/mfrac><\/mrow>PR = \\frac{P}{H}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>PR=HP\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n\nPR = 1.0<\/strong> \u2192 equal portal and HS<\/li>\n\n\n\nPR > 1.0<\/strong> \u2192 portal-heavy<\/li>\n\n\n\nPR < 1.0<\/strong> \u2192 HS-heavy<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nIn the tool, you\u2019ll see both \u2014 but Portal Share<\/strong> is what drives most of the analysis pasted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nStep 2: Winning Still Matters (A Lot)<\/h2>\n\n\n\nNo advanced metric should ignore the obvious.W<\/mi>i<\/mi>n<\/mi>\u00a0<\/mtext>P<\/mi>e<\/mi>r<\/mi>c<\/mi>e<\/mi>n<\/mi>t<\/mi>a<\/mi>g<\/mi>e<\/mi>=<\/mo>W<\/mi>W<\/mi>+<\/mo>L<\/mi><\/mrow><\/mfrac><\/mrow>Win\\ Percentage = \\frac{W}{W + L}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>Win\u00a0Percentage=W+LW\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\nEverything we do later is anchored to winning, not vibes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nStep 3: The Missing Piece \u2014 Retention & Continuity<\/h2>\n\n\n\nThis is where the portal conversation usually breaks down.<\/p>\n\n\n\nSteve Kim\u2019s point \u2014 whether explicitly or implicitly \u2014 was this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\nTeams can win the portal one year\u2026 then get crushed when that class leaves.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\nSo we track portal retention<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nLet:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\nP\u2080<\/strong> = portal players added in Year 0<\/li>\n\n\n\nS\u2081<\/strong> = how many are still on the roster the next year<\/li>\n\n\n\nS\u2082<\/strong>, S\u2083<\/strong> = still there two and three years later<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nRetention rates:R<\/mi>1<\/mn><\/msub>=<\/mo>S<\/mi>1<\/mn><\/msub>P<\/mi>0<\/mn><\/msub><\/mfrac>,<\/mo><\/mspace>R<\/mi>2<\/mn><\/msub>=<\/mo>S<\/mi>2<\/mn><\/msub>P<\/mi>0<\/mn><\/msub><\/mfrac>,<\/mo><\/mspace>R<\/mi>3<\/mn><\/msub>=<\/mo>S<\/mi>3<\/mn><\/msub>P<\/mi>0<\/mn><\/msub><\/mfrac><\/mrow>R_1 = \\frac{S_1}{P_0}, \\quad R_2 = \\frac{S_2}{P_0}, \\quad R_3 = \\frac{S_3}{P_0}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>R1\u200b=P0\u200bS1\u200b\u200b,R2\u200b=P0\u200bS2\u200b\u200b,R3\u200b=P0\u200bS3\u200b\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\nThen we combine them into a Roster Stability Score (RSS)<\/strong>:R<\/mi>S<\/mi>S<\/mi>=<\/mo>0.60<\/mn>R<\/mi>1<\/mn><\/msub>+<\/mo>0.30<\/mn>R<\/mi>2<\/mn><\/msub>+<\/mo>0.10<\/mn>R<\/mi>3<\/mn><\/msub><\/mrow>RSS = 0.60R_1 + 0.30R_2 + 0.10R_3<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>RSS=0.60R1\u200b+0.30R2\u200b+0.10R3\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\nWhy the weighting?<\/p>\n\n\n\n\nImmediate continuity matters most<\/li>\n\n\n\nLong-term retention still counts, just less<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nPrograms that cycle players every year get exposed here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nStep 4: Penalizing Extremes (The \u201cSweet Spot\u201d Idea)<\/h2>\n\n\n\nThe core hypothesis is simple:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\nToo little portal = slow roster correctionToo much portal = instability<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\nSo we define a target portal share<\/strong> \u2014 call it PS*<\/strong> (for example, 0.35).<\/p>\n\n\n\nThen we reward balance:B<\/mi>a<\/mi>l<\/mi>a<\/mi>n<\/mi>c<\/mi>e<\/mi>=<\/mo>1<\/mn>\u2212<\/mo>\u2223<\/mi>P<\/mi>S<\/mi>\u2212<\/mo>P<\/mi>S<\/mi>\u2217<\/mo><\/msup>\u2223<\/mi><\/mrow>Balance = 1 \u2013 |PS \u2013 PS^*|<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>Balance=1\u2212\u2223PS\u2212PS\u2217\u2223<\/p>\n\n\n\nThe closer you are to the sweet spot, the higher the balance score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nStep 5: The Sweet Spot Score (SSS)<\/h2>\n\n\n\nNow we combine everything into one number:S<\/mi>S<\/mi>S<\/mi>=<\/mo>(<\/mo>0.50<\/mn>\u00d7<\/mo>W<\/mi>i<\/mi>n<\/mi>%<\/mi>)<\/mo>+<\/mo>(<\/mo>0.25<\/mn>\u00d7<\/mo>R<\/mi>S<\/mi>S<\/mi>)<\/mo>+<\/mo>(<\/mo>0.15<\/mn>\u00d7<\/mo>B<\/mi>a<\/mi>l<\/mi>a<\/mi>n<\/mi>c<\/mi>e<\/mi>)<\/mo>+<\/mo>(<\/mo>0.10<\/mn>\u00d7<\/mo>(<\/mo>1<\/mn>\u2212<\/mo>C<\/mi>h<\/mi>u<\/mi>r<\/mi>n<\/mi>)<\/mo>)<\/mo><\/mrow>SSS = (0.50 \\times Win\\%) + (0.25 \\times RSS) + (0.15 \\times Balance) + (0.10 \\times (1 \u2013 Churn))<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>SSS=(0.50\u00d7Win%)+(0.25\u00d7RSS)+(0.15\u00d7Balance)+(0.10\u00d7(1\u2212Churn))<\/p>\n\n\n\nThis score:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\nRewards winning<\/li>\n\n\n\nRewards continuity<\/li>\n\n\n\nPenalizes roster whiplash<\/li>\n\n\n\nPenalizes extreme portal dependence<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nIt also explains why<\/em> two teams with similar records can feel very different long-term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nWhy This Matters (Especially for Miami)<\/h2>\n\n\n\nThis model finally lets us test narratives we argue about every offseason:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\nDid a big portal year actually sustain<\/em> success?<\/li>\n\n\n\nDid losing portal starters show up in next year\u2019s record?<\/li>\n\n\n\nWho builds reloadable rosters \u2014 not just one-year spikes?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nFor Miami specifically, this helps separate:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\u201cPortal hype\u201d<\/strong> from portal efficiency<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\nVolume from value<\/li>\n\n\n\nShort-term wins from program stability<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nWhat the Tool Below Does<\/h2>\n\n\n\nThe interactive widget below lets you:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\nManually enter team-year data<\/li>\n\n\n\nPaste or load CSVs (including Python-generated outputs)<\/li>\n\n\n\nCompare teams across conferences<\/li>\n\n\n\nVisualize multi-year trends with sparklines<\/li>\n\n\n\nRank programs by Sweet Spot Score<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nNo database. No login. Just math.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFinal Thought<\/h2>\n\n\n\nSteve Kim asked the right question.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThis isn\u2019t about being pro-portal<\/em> or anti-portal<\/em>.It\u2019s about how much<\/strong>, how well<\/strong>, and for how long<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThat\u2019s the sweet spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\ud83d\udc47 Use the calculator below, plug in your teams, and see where the data lands.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\ud83e\uddee Simple Sweet Spot Score (Public Formula)<\/h2>\n\n\n\nThis is intentionally short + explainable<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\nPAS = Portal_In \/ (Portal_In + HS_Signed)\n\nWin% = Wins \/ (Wins + Losses)\n\nSweet Spot Score =\n(Win% \u00d7 100)\n\u2212 |PAS \u2212 0.40| \u00d7 30\n\u2212 Churn \u00d7 15\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\nWhere:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n0.40<\/strong> = hypothesized portal sweet spot<\/li>\n\n\n\nChurn<\/strong> = (Portal In + Portal Out) \u00f7 Total Adds<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nScore range (rough):<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n80\u2013100<\/strong> = Elite balance<\/li>\n\n\n\n65\u201379<\/strong> = Solid \/ sustainable<\/li>\n\n\n\n50\u201364<\/strong> = Volatile<\/li>\n\n\n\n< 50<\/strong> = Roster risk<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nI\u2019M building The Full scale Here\u2026https:\/\/studio1live.com\/college-football-roster-sweetspot\/<\/a> coming soon , a little scrape code build so it can be automatic \u2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\nCheck out the simple tool below <\/p>\n\n\n \r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n <\/h3>\r\n \r\n Enter team-year data (W\/L + HS + Portal In\/Out). Run scores to rank teams.\r\n No database required.<\/span>\r\n <\/div>\r\n <\/div>\r\n\r\n \r\n Sweet Spot Target (PAS)<\/label>\r\n \r\n \r\n Load Miami Preset\r\n <\/button>\r\n <\/div>\r\n <\/div>\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n Conference Presets:<\/div>\r\n ACC<\/button>\r\n SEC<\/button>\r\n B1G<\/button>\r\n Big 12<\/button>\r\n Pac<\/button>\r\n <\/div>\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n <\/tbody>\r\n <\/table>\r\n <\/div>\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n Optional: Paste CSV (team,year,w,l,hs,pin,pout)<\/div>\r\n <\/textarea>\r\n <div style=\"display:flex;gap:10px;flex-wrap:wrap;\">\r\n <button class=\"btnImport\" type=\"button\"\r\n style=\"padding:9px 12px;border-radius:10px;border:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.18);\r\n background:rgba(0,0,0,.25);color:#f3fff9;cursor:pointer;\">Import CSV<\/button>\r\n <button class=\"btnExample\" type=\"button\"\r\n style=\"padding:9px 12px;border-radius:10px;border:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.18);\r\n background:rgba(0,0,0,.25);color:#f3fff9;cursor:pointer;\">Paste Example<\/button>\r\n <\/div>\r\n \r\n<div style=\"margin-top:12px;display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr;gap:8px;\">\r\n <div style=\"font-weight:900;color:#ff7a21;\">Load CSV from URL (Python output)<\/div>\r\n\r\n <input class=\"csvUrl\" type=\"url\"\r\n placeholder=\"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/college-football-roster-sweetspot\/data\/out\/teamyear_sweetspot_retention_2024.csv\"\r\n style=\"width:100%;padding:10px;border-radius:12px;border:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.18);\r\n background:rgba(0,0,0,.25);color:#f3fff9;\">\r\n\r\n <div style=\"display:flex;gap:10px;flex-wrap:wrap;align-items:center;\">\r\n <button class=\"btnLoadUrl\" type=\"button\"\r\n style=\"padding:9px 12px;border-radius:10px;border:0;background:#00d084;color:#000;font-weight:900;cursor:pointer;\">\r\n Load From URL\r\n <\/button>\r\n\r\n <button class=\"btnUrlExample\" type=\"button\"\r\n style=\"padding:9px 12px;border-radius:10px;border:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.18);\r\n background:rgba(0,0,0,.25);color:#f3fff9;cursor:pointer;\">\r\n Use Example URL\r\n <\/button>\r\n\r\n <span class=\"urlStatus\" style=\"font-size:12px;opacity:.85;\"><\/span>\r\n <\/div>\r\n\r\n <div style=\"font-size:12px;opacity:.85;line-height:1.35;\">\r\n Tip: If the load fails, it\u2019s usually CORS or the CSV isn\u2019t publicly accessible.\r\n Best is to host the CSV on the same domain (studio1live.com).\r\n <\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n <\/div>\r\n\r\n <div style=\"display:flex;gap:10px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin-top:12px;\">\r\n <button class=\"btnAdd\" type=\"button\"\r\n style=\"padding:9px 12px;border-radius:10px;border:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.18);\r\n background:rgba(0,0,0,.25);color:#f3fff9;cursor:pointer;\">+ Add Row<\/button>\r\n\r\n <button class=\"btnRun\" type=\"button\"\r\n style=\"padding:9px 12px;border-radius:10px;border:0;background:#00d084;color:#000;font-weight:900;cursor:pointer;\">\r\n Run Scores\r\n <\/button>\r\n\r\n <button class=\"btnExport\" type=\"button\"\r\n style=\"padding:9px 12px;border-radius:10px;border:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.18);\r\n background:rgba(0,0,0,.25);color:#f3fff9;cursor:pointer;\">Export CSV<\/button>\r\n\r\n <button class=\"btnClear\" type=\"button\"\r\n style=\"padding:9px 12px;border-radius:10px;border:0;background:#ff3f6c;color:#000;font-weight:900;cursor:pointer;\">\r\n Clear \/ Reset\r\n <\/button>\r\n <\/div>\r\n\r\n <div class=\"out\" style=\"margin-top:14px;\"><\/div>\r\n <\/div>\r\n \n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/college-football-roster-sweetspot\">https:\/\/studio1live.com\/college-football-roster-sweetspot<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n<\/body>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Canes Insight to Code: Finding College Football\u2019s Portal \u201cSweet Spot\u201d I was watching Canes Insight the other day, listening to Steve Kim, when he said something that stuck with me. Paraphrasing, he wondered out loud if there was a \u201csweet spot\u201d in the transfer portal era \u2014 not too portal-heavy, not too old-school high-school […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/picks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/picks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/picks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/picks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/picks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=590"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/picks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":601,"href":"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/picks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590\/revisions\/601"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/picks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/picks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/studio1live.com\/picks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Team<\/th>\r\n Year<\/th>\r\n W<\/th>\r\n L<\/th>\r\n HS Signed<\/th>\r\n Portal In<\/th>\r\n Portal Out<\/th>\r\n Actions<\/th>\r\n <\/tr>\r\n <\/thead>\r\n$